“LAND PRICE PREDICTION ANALYSIS FOR HIG & MIG HOUSING: A CASE STUDY FOR INDORE CITY”

Abstract

This study focuses on the analysis and prediction of land prices for Middle-Income Group (MIG) and High-Income Group (HIG) residential areas in Indore. The research aims to understand the changing pattern of urban land values, assess housing affordability, and examine the major factors influencing residential land prices in different parts of the city. The study has been conducted considering the rapid urban expansion, infrastructural development, increasing migration, and changing real estate dynamics in Indore. The research is based on both primary and secondary data sources. Primary data was collected through field surveys, buyer perception studies, and interactions with real estate stakeholders,while secondary data included government guideline values, master plan documents, land usemaps, and market rate records from 2016 to 2025. The study areas selected for detailed analysis include Saket Nagar and Vijay Nagar representing HIG segments, and Sudama Nagar and Nipania representing MIG residential growth areas. The methodology adopted in the study includes spatial analysis, land use and land cover (LULC) assessment, housing affordability analysis, and time-series forecasting techniques. The study also evaluates the relationship between accessibility, infrastructure availability, socio-economic conditions, and land valuation. To forecast future land prices, the ARIMA (1,1,0) time-series model was applied due to its suitability for trend-based real estate forecasting and its effectiveness in handling non-stationary datasets. The model demonstrated reliable forecasting performance with high R² values ranging between 0.87 and 0.93 across the selected locations. The findings reveal that all study areas experienced a similar trend pattern consisting of stability during 2016–2018, a significant decline in 2019 due to the national real estate slowdown and NBFC crisis, gradual recovery during 2020–2021, and accelerated growth after 2022 driven by infrastructure development and rising urban demand. Among all locations,Vijay Nagar recorded the highest growth trend owing to its commercial importance, superior connectivity, and strong investment demand, whereas Sudama Nagar exhibited moderate and stable growth representing affordable housing characteristics. Saket Nagar showed consistent high-value appreciation, while Nipania emerged as a rapidly developing residential zone influenced by urban expansion and pillover demand from prime areas. The forecast results indicate continued growth in land prices up to 2030 across all selected areas. Predicted market rates for 2030 are estimated to reach approximately ₹152,147 in Vijay Nagar, ₹136,811 in Saket Nagar, ₹88,255 in Nipania, and ₹68,984 in Sudama Nagar. The study concludes that land prices in Indore are strongly influenced by infrastructure projects, accessibility, economic conditions, and urban growth patterns. It further highlights that while ARIMA models are effective for short-term forecasting, external interventions such as policy changes and major infrastructure developments can significantly affect prediction accuracy. overall, the study provides useful insights for urban planners, policy makers, real estate professionals, and researchers for promoting balanced urban growth and informed residential planning decisions in Indore city.