MULTI-HAZARD VULNERABILITY OF INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS IN AN URBAN AREA, A Case Study of Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

Bhopal's informal settlements do not exist in a spatial vacuum. Over decades, they have grown precisely along the edges that the city's formal planning systems have least managed to control the railway corridor that cuts through the urban core, the sensitive margins of the Upper Lake, and the drainage channels and topographic sinks that define the low-lying quarters of the old city. These locations are not chosen randomly by the residents who live there; they are often the last available land, the most affordable, and in many cases the only spaces that remain accessible to the urban poor when formal housing provision falls short. This thesis assesses the spatial vulnerability of informal settlements in Bhopal against three independently defined hazard categories: infrastructure edge hazards associated with railway proximity, hydrological and eco sensitive hazards from lake buffer encroachment measured against the 50-metre National Green Tribunal standard, and topographic flood risk derived from digital elevation model analysis. The research employs a four-stage GIS-based methodology, using building footprint data from Google Open Buildings V3 (2024) intersected with hazard layers derived from NASADEM elevation data, Railway Works Manual buffer standards, and NGT wetland regulations, to classify informal settlements by priority zone and propose differentiated planning interventions. The composite multi-hazard vulnerability analysis identifies 2,215 building footprints within one or more hazard zones across 13.6 hectares of the Bhopal Municipal Corporation area. Of these, 1,075 units (31 per cent) are classified as Untenable under the Priority Hazard Matrix and require relocation. A further 1,140 units (45 per cent) are Semi-Tenure eligible, with in-situ structural upgrading feasible through the PMAY U 2.0 BLC vertical. Three principal vulnerability hotspots are identified: the Chola Nishatpura belt where infrastructure edge and topographic flood conditions overlap to produce a cyclic structural decay condition; the Khanugaon-Koh-e-Fiza lakefront where Ramsar Convention obligations and drinking water contamination risks compound the housing vulnerability of 275 families; and the Bairagarh lowlands, the only confirmed triple-hazard zone in Bhopal, where all three hazard conditions simultaneously overlap for 65 building footprints. A key analytical correction is applied throughout the study: the 50-metre NGT Ramsar buffer standard is used in place of the 33-metre Bhopal Development Plan figure for the Upper Lake Bhopal, reclassifying 85 additional structures from the upgrade-eligible to the mandatory-relocation category. This correction has significant planning and legal implications. Planning proposals are organised across three intervention zones. Zone A covers relocation and rehabilitation for all Untenable units, with site selection criteria, resettlement process safeguards, and new housing design standards that address the ventilation and structural deficiencies documented in existing PMAY layouts.A GIS based vacant land identification exercise, overlaying BDP 2031 Residential General-I (RG-I) and Residential General-II (RG-II) land use zones with Sentinel-2 LULC vacancy classification and NASADEM elevation data, confirms the availability of correctly zoned, flood-safe relocation sites within 2 kilometers of all three hotspot clusters establishing that Zone A resettlement can be achieved through existing residential land designations without requiring agricultural land conversion or long distance displacement of affected households. Zone B covers in-situ upgrading and hazard mitigation for Semi-Tenure units, centred on a Resilience Retrofit Kit of raised plinths, cement mortar replacement, and drainage infrastructure funded through PMAY-U 2.0 and AMRUT 2.0. Zone C covers the ecological restoration of the 50 metre lakefront buffer following Zone A relocation, transforming the zone into a bioswale and public ecological park network aligned with the National Wetland Conservation Programme and the Smart City Mission Bhopal. The study contributes a reproducible, open-data GIS methodology, a regulatory correction of significant planning consequence, and a differentiated policy framework calibrated to three distinct vulnerability profiles. Its findings are intended to serve as both a strategic diagnostic tool for Bhopal's planning authorities and an analytical foundation for the final thesis submission.